Nombre: THIAGO SANTOS SILVA
Fecha de publicación: 26/11/2025
Junta de examinadores:
Nombre |
Papel |
|---|---|
| ELYSON ÁDAN NUNES CARVALHO | Examinador Externo |
| EVANDRO OTTONI TEATINI SALLES | Presidente |
| JUGURTA ROSA MONTALVÃO FILHO | Coorientador |
| KARIN SATIE KOMATI | Examinador Externo |
| MOISES RENATO NUNES RIBEIRO | Examinador Interno |
Páginas
Sumario: The transmission of new pathogens tends to have its first cases in population and commercial centers, with spread to peripheral regions connected to these centers, in a process of infection internalization. Models that explain the spatiotemporal evolution of disease cases can aid in preparing the necessary measures to contain the spread of infectious agents. In view of this, this work develops a probabilistic model to estimate the time of arrival of the first infection in peripheral cities connected to urban hubs already in an active phase of community transmission. The model integrates the accelerated growth of cases (common in the initial phases of epidemics) with mobility data, creating a framework that simultaneously analyzes the temporal and spatial aspects of dissemination. Its core is a random variable that estimates the delay of the first infection, combining the exponential growth of cases in the urban hub with the population flow between cities. The distribution of this variable is tested by likelihood against real data from the recent COVID-19 pandemic in four Brazilian states: Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo. Furthermore, the modeled variable was used to propose a measure of dominance between cities in the transmission phase of the pathogen over those not yet infected. The results show a propagation structure in which cities like São Paulo exert dominant influence not only over their own state but also over neighboring regions, while smaller hubs have a more limited reach. The quantitative analysis of this dominance can provide a tool to identify priority routes for epidemiological surveillance.
